Somalia's next step

The staging of a meeting of tribal elders and politicians to draft a new constitution and elect a National Constituent Assembly is a significant moment in the life of Somalis, contends Gamal Nkrumah

Only Somalis can reconcile Jekyll with Hyde. Eccentric in tone and cryptic in content, the draft constitution of the Somali ruling clique is embarking on an experiment that is important for what it implies. What Somali politicians and tribal elders are hinting at is that domestic decisions are made in an atmosphere that encourages circumspection and prudence rather than openness and ingenuousness. The role of tribal leaders in Somalia has long been abused by warlords. This, coupled with the sidelining of intellectuals and women, has become increasingly untenable.

Somali tribal leaders, former warlords and politicians are meeting in the capital, Mogadishu, at the moment to form a National Constituent Assembly, the country's nucleus of a legislative body. After two decades of civil war and political chaos, Somalia's long-destroyed institutions need a robust change, just as any in the African continent. Somalis can draw little comfort, however, from the experience of the past few months. But this is no excuse for Somalis to sit on their hands.

Such caveats, however, cannot camouflage the uncomfortable truth. The National Constituent Assembly needs as many women as men. Tribal leaders are overwhelmingly middle-aged men who have traditionally monopolised power in Somalia. The new 275-member parliament is supposed to be representative of all people of the country.

Yet the Somali political elite maintains the pretence that all Somalis are represented in the National Constituent Assembly. They are fearful of the power of militant Islamist groups in Somalia. And, indeed, without political and military assistance from the international community, and regional powers such as Ethiopia and Kenya with large ethnic Somali minorities, the Islamists might overrun the Somali capital and split the ruling clique and deliver victory to the militant Islamists and their political allies. Somalia's political progress has often been interrupted by the interference of outside forces.

The hope is that the cross-pollination of thoughts among Somalia's political elite will spark a new idea. They must resist the temptation of incorporating the Islamist militants. They must also try and include representatives of breakaway regions such as Somaliland in the northwest and Puntland, an autonomous and particularly prosperous region in the northeast. There are lessons to be learned from the successes of both Puntland and Somaliland.

If there is one thing on which most Somalis agree, it is that the nation must muster the strength to secure a full-fledged democracy. One thing has radically changed in contemporary Somalia: the Somali political conflict can no longer be classified as a civil war within a single state.

There are no easy options in Somalia. What is truly astounding is that the Somalis have managed to utilise the goodwill of neighbouring countries and the international community to their own advantage. The crux of the matter is that the key neighbouring states have their political priorities which sometimes interfere with those of the Somali people. Three issues are of grave concern in Somalia. First the militant Islamist threat, which now risks the stability of Somalia's neighbours and poses particular problems to Kenya and Ethiopia with their large and restive Muslim minorities.

Such a crisis would overwhelm the mechanisms of political reform in Somalia itself as well as destabilising Ethiopia and Kenya. African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) assumed full control of Kenyan troops in Somalia this week.

Second, sharing its political intentions publicly is an important internal check on the political institutions now being created in Somalia. Neighbouring countries have a big say in what goes on in Somalia.

Third, frustrated with the difficulty of breaking the hold of the antiquated tribal traditions of Somali politics, emerging players appear to be making inroads into the political milieu. The Western-educated, secularist intellectuals and women leaders, long marginalised from the decision-making process, have complicated the process of institutional re-building in Somalia, which will need all the resources the country can muster.

Until this point, Somali President Sherif Sheikh Ahmed has largely been on the right track. He has been trying to raise resources to accomplish a most difficult task.

This also falls on the right side of the line. Somali leaders currently debating the draft of a new constitution aim to guarantee more fundamental rights than the United States constitution. But rights such as access to medical care, clean potable water and food are hard to guarantee in one of the world's poorest countries.

The new constitution is to replace the Transitional Federal Charter written in 2004. The fault of the leadership of the Somali president is his almost total reliance on outside powers. If he does not take corrective action, Somalia might end up as a country entirely dependent on its friends abroad, unleashing a new round of civil war and chaos.

This can intensify the ongoing power struggles. It raises questions about whether Somalis can actually manage a multi-party democracy and launch a full-fledged state once again.

Regulatory muscle flexing may be needed to enforce a more rational division of the spoils. Somali politicians renege on the electoral promises as soon as they take office, but the Somali president made good on his pledge to restore law and order. He deserted his onetime allies, the militant Islamist Al-Shabab (Youth), and mended fences with neighbouring Ethiopia and Kenya, key players in Somali politics.

Somali Prime Minister Abdel-Wali Ali also must make his influence felt. He needs to provide intellectual political leadership to lift his war-torn country out of its current morass.

Securing a slot in the leading pack, Somalia's president and prime minister must curtail the power of tribal elders and end the endemic corruption. A leaked United Nations report revealed that petty officials and politicians pocketed around 70 per cent of funds intended for development projects. Somalia's interim government faces a challenging task indeed.

Against this backdrop, the need to combat widespread dependence on narcotics in Somalia has become imperative. Qat is a narcotic tropical plant where the leaves are widely chewed as a stimulant. The narcotic slows down economic performance. And since the drug is almost exclusively consumed by men, the epidemic leaves Somali women with a bulk of domestic and agricultural labour, leaving men free to take up arms. A most destructive, vicious cycle. Here is something really worth banning.

If Somali politicians drag their feet, then there is nothing to stop the country from sliding back into civil war and chaos.

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Listings: Weekly guide to Cairo & Alexandria

*Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (3D), horror starring Benjamin Walker and Rufus Sewell, directed by Timur Bekmambetov.

*Al-Almani (The German), drama starring Mohamed Ramadan, Rania El-Mallah and Ahmed Bedeir, directed by Alaa El-Sherif.

*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D), starring Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone, directed by Marc Webb.

*The Avengers, Science fiction starring Robert Downey Jr. and Chris Evans, directed by Joss Whedon.

*Battleship, science fiction starring Taylor Kitsch, Liam Neeson and Brooklyn Decker, directed by Peter Berg.

*Dark Shadows, comedy starring Johnny Depp and Michelle Pfeiffer, directed by Tim Burton.

*Five-Year Engagement, comedy starring Jason Segel and Emily Blunt, directed by Nicholas Stoller.

*Game Over, comedy starring Youssra and Maye Ezzeddin, directed by Ahmed El-Badri.

*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating), starring Ramez Galal, Emy Samir Ghanem and Hassan Hosni, directed by Ahmed El-Badri.

*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done), starring Saad El-Soghayar, Amina and Lotfi Labib, directed by Ismail Farouk.

*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream), starring Ahmed Ezz, Sherif Mounir and Maye Kassab, directed by Amr Arafa.

*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D), animation voices by Ben Stiller, Jada Pinkett Smith, directed by Eric Darnell, Tom McGrath and Conrad Vernon.

*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit), drama starring Ahmed El-Saqqa, Ahmed Ezz, Hanan Turk and Zeina, directed by Sandra Nashaat.

*Men in Black III (3D), science fiction starring Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones, directed by Barry Sonnenfeld.

*Prometheus (3D), science fiction starring Noomi Rapace, Michael Fassbender and Charlize Theron, directed by Ridley Scott.

*Rock of Ages, musical production starring Tom Cruise, Alec Baldwin, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Julianne Hough and Diego Boneta, directed by Adam Shankman.

*Snow White and the Huntsman, starring Kristen Stewart and Chris Hemsworth, directed by Rupert Sanders.

*Think Like a Man, comedy starring Chris Brown and Gabrielle Union and Kevin Hart, directed by Tim Story.

*What to Expect When You're Expecting, comedy starring Cameron Diaz, Jennifer Lopez and Elizabeth Banks, directed by Kirk Jones.

Generally, shows begin at 10:30am, 1:30pm, 9:30pm and midnight, however each cinema has its show times during the month of Ramadan.

Al-Amir
Khlousi, Shubra, Cairo. Tel: 2205 5722
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Bandar, Maadi (11am, 2pm & 10pm)
Bandar Mall, 1 Palestine St, New Maadi. Tel: 2519 0770
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Snow White and the Huntsman

Cine Max
Cityscape Mall, Horriya sq, 6 October City. Tel: 012 0666 1336
*Al-Almani (The German)
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

City Centre
3 Makram Ebeid St, Nasr City. Tel: 010 667 5096
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)
*Snow White and the Huntsman

Cosmos
12 Emadeddin St, downtown Cairo. Tel: 2574 2177
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Dandy Mall (2pm & 10pm)
Beginning of Cairo-Alexandria Desert Road. Tel: 018 919 6438
*Five-Year Engagement
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)

Diana
17 Al-Alfi St, Emadeddin, downtown Cairo. Tel: 2592 4727
*Al-Almani (The German)

Downtown (2pm & 10pm)
8 Emadeddin St, Downtown. Tel: 2592 4727
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Dream
Dream Land, Sixth of October City. Tel: 3855 3217
*Al-Almani (The German)
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Galaxy
67 Abdel-Aziz Al-Seoud St, Manial. Tel: 2532 5745/6
*Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (3D)
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*The Avengers (3D)
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Geneina
Al-Batrawi St, off Abbas Al-Aqad St, Nasr City. Tel: 2263 0745- 016 553 0858
*Five-Year Engagement
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Snow White and the Huntsman

Golden Stars
City Stars Mall New Annex, Heliopolis. Tel: 2480 2580/1
*Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (3D)
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Rock of Ages
*Think like a Man

Golf City
Al-Obour City. Tel: 4610 6155/6/7
*Al-Almani (The German)
*Battleship
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)
*Snow White and the Huntsman

Meeting Point
90th St, New Cairo, beside the AUC. Tel: 011 1660 6587
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (3D)
*The Lucky One
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Metro (2pm & 10pm)
35 Talaat Harb St, Downtown. Tel: 2393 7566
*Game Over
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

New Modern Shubra
Al-Mazallat St, Shubra. Tel: 2430 9122
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)

Nile City (2pm & 10pm)
Nile City Towers, Nile Corniche, Maspero. Tel: 2461 9101
*Five-Year Engagement
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Snow White and the Huntsman
*What to Expect When You're Expecting

Normandy
31 Al-Ahram St, Heliopolis. Tel: 2257 9195
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)

Odeon
4 Dr Abdel-Hamid Said St, downtown Cairo. Tel: 2575 8797- 2576 5642
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Pigale
25 Emadeddin St, Downtown. Tel: 2593 8594
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)

Ramses Hilton
Nile Corniche, Maspero. Tel: 2574 7435
*Al-Almani (The German)
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Roxy
Roxy Sq, Heliopolis. Tel: 2258 0344
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Al-Salam Concorde
65 Abdel-Hamid Badawi St, Heliopolis. Tel: 2622 6376
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Sarai Al-Hada'iq
16 Walielahd St, off Masr wal-Sudan St, Hada'iq Al-Qubba. Tel: 2485 8400
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Serag Mall
Attia El-Sawalhy St, off Makram Ebeid Nasr City. Tel: 2276 0080
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

Sixth of October (2pm & 10pm)
Sixth of October City. Tel: 3835 7569
*Game Over
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Snow White and the Huntsman

Stars
City Stars Mall: Omar Ibn Al-Khattab St, Heliopolis. Tel: 2480 2013/4
*Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter (3D)
*The Amazing Spider-Man (3D)
*Al-Almani (The German)
*The Avengers (3D)
*Dark Shadows
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)
*Men in Black III (3D)
*Prometheus (3D)
*Think Like a Man

Sun City (2pm & 10pm)
Behind Sheraton buildings, Heliopolis. Tel: 010 0002 1211
*Five-Year Engagement
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (3D)
*Snow White and the Huntsman
*What to Expect When You're Expecting

Tahrir
112 Tahrir St, Dokki, Giza. Tel: 3335 4726
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)

Tiba
84 Al-Nasr Road, Nasr City. Tel: 2262 1084
*Game Over
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)

Wonderland (11am, 2pm & 10pm)
Abbas El Akkad St, Nasr City. Tel: 2401 2254
*Al-Almani (The German)
*Game Over
*Gheish Al-Zawgeiya (Marital Cheating)
*Hasal Kheir (No Harm Done)
*Helm Aziz (Aziz's Dream)
*Al-Maslaha (The Benefit)

CULTURAL CENTRES

Italian Cultural Centre
3 El-Sheikh El Marsafi St, Zamalek, Cairo. Tel: 2735 8791
Cine Video Club
Italy of Regions; is a virtual journey discovering Italy and its landscapes and archeological beauties, the journey will unfold from north to south through art, history, places and cultural performances.
2 August, 8pm: Eolie and Sardinia
9 August, 8pm: Florence

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For the fourth week running the art review focuses on ?The Collective Exhibition 2012?; a group exhibition that features 60 artists from different generations including among others Mohamed Sabry, Salah Taher, Mohamed El-Tarrawi, Makram Henein, Samir Fouad, Halim Yacoub, Mohamed Mandour, Nadia Hassan, Effat Hosni, Mohsen Shaalan, Mustafa Khodeir, Mervat Refaat, Ahmed Badawi, Ahmed Selim, Hassan Rashed, Ayman Taher, Ehab Lotfy, Mona Abdel-Rahman, Adel Thabet, Djehan Raouf, Eman Hakim and Farouk Wagdi.

Currently ongoing at Duroub gallery in Garden City, the miscellaneous exhibition showcases paintings, sculptures, ceramics, glasswares, 3D objects, calligraphy and handmade silver jewellery.

In this collective show, Farouk Wagdi presents 30 new oil paintings in different sizes that brings about happiness and cheerfulness that audience are looking for in art these days to alleviate some of their sorrow and anxiety. His new paintings document Egypt's rich heritage through using folk motifs inspired by the folk Egyptian heritage. In his entire oeuvre, it is noticed his concern with the heritage through organising a series of exhibitions that began in 2005 with an exhibition entitled ?Egyptian Tales? on the customs and traditions exercised by the Egyptian women in urban popular districts. This was followed by another thrilling show on the plays of children in Egyptian rural villages and urban popular districts in 2006.

The exhibition is running through 16 September.

Reviewed by Nagwa El-Ashri

Ceramic and Traditional Handicrafts Centre
1 Al-Imam St, behind Amr bin El-Aas Mosque, Al-Fustat, Old Cairo. Tel 2364 3103
A permanent exhibition of the centre's ceramic, brass, jewellery and khayamiya products.

Darb 1718
Kasr Al-Sham' St, Fustat, Old Cairo, behind the Hanging Church & Amr bin Al-Aas Mosque, next to Mar Girgis metro station. Tel 012 2192449/ 2361 0511
*ÒHarassmentÓ, Some will tell you it's due to sexual frustration resulting from young men financially unable to get married, others will tell you It's general frustration from the hardships of life. So many theories, yet no real answer. The issue remains a black box. At the end, no one really understands why the problem is so rampant in Egypt._Strangely though, sexual harassment mysteriously vanished during the famous 18 days beginning Egypt's revolution. Again, people are trying to understand how and why. The utopia did not last long however, society's ailments that had mysteriously seemed to vanish, returned in full force. The problem may be back as it was, but the women are, definitely, no longer the same.__Whether it is through television, internet, lawsuits or art, their voice is being heard, and will continue to be heard: Enough.__Participating artists:__Amira Paree (The Netherlands / Egypt),_Anka Gadasevic (Serbia)_Dina Abdel-Aziz,_Enas Abul Komsan, _Enas El-Sediek, Habeeba Sultan,_Hagar_Hela Ammar ( Tunisia)_Khadija Mustafa, _Nahla El-Sebaey among others (Closing 20 August). _
*ÒLost GodsÓ, Joshua Goode is presenting 200 small sculptures. These will be buried in containers of sand. Visitors will be asked to 'dig' to find them and then will display them on a shelf or table. They will find complete figures and fragments. All of these objects have a specific meaning for Goode and are part of his personal mythology, yet they are meant to have enough ambiguity that others can find their own meaning within them. Viewers can use them as characters in their own stories, projected personifications (Closing 20 August).

Duroub
4 Amrika Al-Latiniya St, Garden City, Tel 2796 2881/ 2794 7951. Daily 10am-10pm, closed Fridays
ÒThe Collective Exhibition 2012Ó, a group exhibition honours late artist Nerman Sadeq (Closing 16 September).

ALMASAR
Behler's Mansion, 157b, 26 July St, ground floor, Zamalek, Tel 2736 8537/010 067 0705
ÒGallery CollectionÓ, a group exhibition by a fine selection of late, modern and contemporary Egyptian artists features paintings and sculptures (Closing 1 October 2012).

Salama
36 Ahmed Oraby St, Mohandeseen, Tel 3346 3242
ÒArt For AllÓ, a group exhibition of paintings featuring a galaxy of art moguls (running through the end of 2012 season).

El Sawy Culturewheel
End of 26th of July St, underneath the 15th of May Bridge, Zamalek, Tel 2736 8881/6178/2737 4448, email: info@culturewheel.com
*Earth Hall
A miscellanous exhibition by artist Ibrahim El-Baredi (Closing 9 August).
*Word Hall
ÒRamadaniatÓ, a photography exhibition by Egypt Salon for Photography (Closing 9 August).

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Destar troupe from Turkey

ALEXANDRIA

Alexandria Opera House (Sayed Darwish Theatre)

Fouad St, Mahatat Al-Raml, Alexandria, Tel 03/486 5106

Thur 2, 9.30pm: An Arab Islamic evening from Sudan features religious chanting by singers Fahima Abdallah, Al-Basry as well as folk Sudanese songs performed by Abdel-Aziz Mubarak, Salah bin Al-Badia among others. The evening also features two poets Bushra Al-Betana and Nedal Hassan.

Fri 3, 9.30pm: Percussionist Nesma Abdel-Aziz plays on marimba, accompanied by her band, a number of compositions by the likes of Omar Khayrat and Gamal Salama.

Sat 4, 10pm: Pianist Fathi Salama and his Sharqiat band in a concert that features two rab bands from Egypt and the United States.

Sun 5, 9.30pm: The Turkish troupe Destar plays traditional music from Turkey.

Mon 6, 9.30pm: Eskenderella band.

Tue 7, 9.30pm: An evening with classical traditional music from Indonesia.

Wed 8, 9.30pm: An Arab Islamic night with music from Yemen.

Thur 9, 9.30pm: An Arab Islamic night with the Moroccan music.

RAMADAN SPECIAL

The 5th International Samaa Festival for Spiritual Music and Chanting

Al-Ghouri Dome
111 Al-Azhar St, Al-Ghouriya, Tel 2506 0227
Thur 2, 9.30pm: Samaa Festival presents spiritual music from Iraq and Azerbaijan.
Fri 3, 9.30pm: The second international workshop presents Egypt, the United States, Indonesia, Turkey, Germany and Zambia, conducted by Intesar Abdel-Fattah.
Sat 4, 9.30pm: China, Emirates and Morocco.
Sun 5, 9.30pm: Azerbaijan, Iraq and India.
Mon 6, 9.30pm: Turkey, France and Ukraine.
Tue 7, 9.30pm: Tunisia, Azerbaijan and Bosnia.

Salaheddin Citadel Complex
Salah Salem Rd, Tel 2512 1735
*Bir Youssef Theatre
Thur 2, 9.30pm: The United States, Yemen and Germany.
Fri 3, 9.30pm: China, France, Ecuador, Emirates.
Sat 4, 9.30pm: Indonesia, Egypt and Turkey.
Sun 5, 9.30pm: The first part of the concert features Samaa Troupe, the second part presents an international workshop includes Zambia, Yemen, France, Germany and Egypt.
Mon 6, 9.30pm: Tunisia, Bosnia and Emirates.
Tue 7, 9.30pm: Yemen, Spain and Ukraine.
Wed 8, 9.30pm: The closing ceremony of Samaa Festival features all participating troupes in a big concert.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Cairo Opera House
Gezira Exhibition Grounds. Info 339 8144, box office 2739 0132/0144
*Open-Air Theatre
Thur 2, 9.30pm: Takht Sharqi (Oriental Takht) band features singers Rehab Omar and Walid Heidar in a repertoire of classical Arab songs.
Fri 3, 9.30pm: Violin and guitar duo Hassan Sharara and Emad Hamdi accompanied by flamenco dancer Yasmine Eid and percussionist Hani Zein play classical music.
Sat 4, 9.30pm: Sayed Refaai and Mashrabiat troupe.
Sun 5, 9.30pm: Wust Al-Balad band.
Mon 6, 9.30pm: Rania Yehia sings classical Arab songs.
Tue 7, 9.30pm: Sweet Sound band features Mounir Nasreddin.
Wed 8, 9.30pm: Boughdady band.
Thur 9, 9.30pm: Pop singer Ali El-Haggar.
*Small Hall
Thur 2, 9.30pm: Fareed Ayaz and Abu Muhammad troupe from Pakistan performs.
Sat 4, 9.30pm: Indonesia Embassy presents an Arab Islamic evening.
Mon 6, 9.30pm: An evening with the Arab music from Yemen.
Tue 7, 9.30pm: An Arab Islamic night with Moroccan music.

Darb 1718
Kasr Al-Sham' St, Fustat, Old Cairo, behind the Hanging Church & Amr bin Al-Aas Mosque, next to Mar Girgis metro station. Tel 012 2192449/ 2361 0511
Thur 2 & Thur 9, 9.30-1.30pm: Mawaweel Festival 2012 presents Cairo's alternative Ramadan experience, in cooperation with the Cairo Jazz Club Agency.

El-Genaina Theatre
Al-Azhar Park, Salah Salem Road, Darassa, Tel 2362 5057
Hayy programme
Thur 2, 9.30pm: Rim Banna, a Palestinian singer, lyricist and composer from Nazareth, her songs are inspired by the Palestinian people's conscience and sentiments, from their culture, their history and their folklore.
Fri 3, 9.30pm: Singer Dina El-Wadidi (Egypt). She learned playing on Arghoul one of the traditional Egyptian musical instruments.On 2008, she composed her first piece for her song El Haram, and since then, she composes music for lyrics that inspire her to be sung by her or others.___
Thur 9 & Fri 10, 9.30pm: Yasmine Hamdan (Lebanon), is a writer, composer and singer, born in Beirut. She formed the indie electro-duo group ÒSoapkillsÓ along with Zeid Hamdan in 1997. Between 1998 and 2005, Soapkills released 4 albums including a live recording. In 2009 she released her album ÒArabologyÓ by Universal Music._

Al-Ghouri Caravansary
Imam Mohamed Abdou St, off Al-Moaiz St with Al-Azhar, Tel 2514 7475 every Sat, Mon & Wed, (8pm, free admission)
Al-Tanoura whirling dervishes perform to live Sufi music.

Makan
1 Saad Zaghloul St, Al-Mounira, Cairo. Tel 2792 0878
Every Wednesday, 9pm: Zar music and songs by Mazaher ensemble.

El Mastaba Centre for Egyptian Folk Music
30 A El-Balaqsa St, Abdeen, Downtown. Tel 011 50995354/ 2392 6768
*Al Dammah Theatre for Free Arts
Thur 2, 10pm: The Bedouin Jerry Can band and their main percussion instrument.

El Sawy Culturewheel
End of 26th of July St, underneath the 15th of May Bridge, Zamalek, Tel 2736 8881/6178/2737 4448, email: info@culturewheel.com
*River Hall
Fri 3, 10pm: Folk art.
Sat 4, 10pm: Suez Canal folk music played on semsemya.
Sun 5, 10pm: Al-Tanoura whirling dervishes perform to live Sufi music.
Mon 6, 10pm: Folk singing.
Tue 7, 10pm: Upper Egypt folk music.
Wed 8, 10pm: Folk art.
Thur 9, 10pm: Basata band.
*Wisdom Hall
Thur 2, 9.30pm: El Sawy Culturewheel
Puppet Theatre show revives the concerts of late diva Umm kolthoum playing two of her best songs.
Fri 3, 9.30pm: Religious singing by Basmat Al-Andalus troupe.
Sun 4, 9.30pm: Jazz fusion by On the Roof band.
Mon 6, 9.30pm: A singing recital by Ali El-Helbawi.
Wed 8, 9.30pm: A classical Arab music concert features singer Azza Balbaa.
Thur 9, 9.30pm: Honouring the memory of legendary Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish.

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Focus: 'The problem is with the politicians'

A few weeks after Egypt elected its first democratically-elected president, Gihan Shahine asks whether Egyptians are ready for democratic change

Working in a classy hair salon in Heliopolis in Cairo, Fadia, a hairdresser, does not seem to care much about issues of democracy, freedom or social equality. All she wants is to get her salary back to normal after a long period of economic recession that has been taking a serious toll on the beauty centre where she works.

"I need to go to work safely without fear of being attacked by thugs," Fadia said. "Security and the economy are the major issues."

The 25 January Revolution that ousted former president Hosni Mubarak last year has only made her life harder and from her point of view has brought chaos and worsened the economy. Fadia does not curse the former regime, and she even voted for Mubarak's last prime minister, Ahmed Shafik, in the two rounds of the recent presidential elections.

"We want this hassle to end. We want to eat and feed our kids, that's all," agreed Hanan, a maid, who did not care to travel all the way from Cairo where she works to Upper Egypt to cast her ballot in the constituency where she is registered for the elections.

After all, she reasoned, "nobody has ever cared about the poor, and there is no hope that anybody ever will."

For both Fadia and Hanan, it might be too much to think that attaining democracy, social equality and justice and putting an end to corruption would mean a better life for them and their kids. Hanan might scoff at these values for being "too good to be true".

Neither might they be able to understand that the kind of stability they enjoyed under the former regime meant their living in slums and the danger of cancer caused by polluted food as well as drinking water polluted with sewage.

Fadia concedes that her mother was perhaps a victim of that kind of corruption, since her mother suffers from both cancer and hepatitis C. That said, Fadia still cannot but yearn for the "good old days" when at least she had food and security.

ARE EGYPTIANS READY FOR DEMOCRACY: The question of whether the Egyptian population, suffering under the double onslaught of poverty and illiteracy, is ready for democracy has been an issue of heated debate. The issue of whether Egypt is moving in the right direction towards a genuinely democratic system remains equally controversial.

"There is no nation in the world that is not ready for democracy," political science professor at the American University in Cairo Manar El-Shorbagy states matter-of-factly. "Only dictators would claim that poverty and illiteracy stand in the way of attaining democracy. India also suffers from poverty, and yet it enjoys democracy."

Prominent sociologist Samir Naim does not blame the poorer segments of society for their present apathy since those living on daily wages have been perhaps the most negatively affected by the revolution. "They cannot tolerate hunger. They just want to eat and feed their kids," Naim explained.

It is not that such people are necessarily against the revolution, however. After all, Naim insists, the poor spontaneously flocked to Cairo's Tahrir Square during the 25 January Revolution, putting an end to three decades of despotism. The fact that the poorer segments of society have also not gone on a hunger strike, which many analysts had speculated could happen prior to the revolution despite the hardships that followed, but have instead flocked to the ballot box in the hope that democracy will bring prosperity may be added proof that Egyptians are yearning for democratic change.

"The fact that the turnout in Egypt's presidential elections was higher than its counterpart in France is yet another case in point," insisted Ayman El-Sayad, the editor of Weghat Nazar [point of view] magazine. El-Sayad also scoffs at claims that the use of bribery or religion to influence voters to cast their ballots for a certain candidate has undermined the democratic process. After all, he argues, "the use of money and other ways to influence voters are used elsewhere in the world."

"This is the first year of democracy in Egypt, and it is normal that people might make mistakes and wrong choices," he argued.

Neither does the fact that many belonging to the higher social strata in Egypt are showing a similar apathy towards the revolution constitute a sign that Egyptians are not ready for democratic change, according to El-Sayad.

"The upper and lower strata of society usually take identical attitudes, but it is usually the middle classes that spearhead change and shape the future," he argued.

VICTIMS OF COUNTER-REVOLUTION: Since the outbreak of the revolution, the silent majority of the public has been the target of counter-revolutionary forces who have created a string of hardships ranging from the prevailing state of chaos and insecurity to recurrent shortages in fuel that have also scared away tourists and resulted in intense economic hardship for many.

Such forces, according to Naim, include the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the police and old-regime beneficiaries and businessmen.

This counter-revolution has played a major influence on public opinion since it has been designed by those who "own the media and have the power and money needed to hire thugs to scare the public, spread chaos, scare tourists away and deliver deadly blows to the economy, while busying people with minor apolitical issues related to bread and the scarcity of fuel," Naim said.

The perceived state of chaos has been one major reason why many people have adopted a negative attitude towards the revolution, yearning for the "good old days" when they at least had bread and security. No wonder, then, that a little less than half of the voting masses cast their ballots for Shafik, who promised to bring back security while putting an end to the "dark ages" of Islamist rule, making it clear that for him the legitimacy of the revolution was over.

Naim, however, does not blame the electorate for that. "It is a well-known fact in psychology that intense emotions, be they of fear or happiness, can impede people's critical and logical thinking abilities and increase their suggestibility, making them accept and believe whatever is said to them," Naim said.

This could be one reason why counter-revolutionary forces have been keen to spread chaos and create adversity.

QUESTIONING THE ROLE OF THE MEDIA: In this vein, many would equally blame the media for the state of polarisation that has plagued society and the unprecedented spread of rumours and conspiracy theories.

"The media has corrupted people's minds," El-Sayad claimed. "It has both stigmatised the revolutionary forces as agents receiving foreign funds, and in the meantime it has created a state of 'Islamophobia' by circulating rumours, conspiracy theories and extensively using the wrong terminology."

El-Sayad explained that some people are not sophisticated enough to understand the hidden agendas of the state and independent media. The state media has always toed the government line, and has been known in the past as the admiring chronicler of the president, the SCAF in the transitional period, while the private-sector media is mostly run by businessmen whose interests may be linked to those of the former regime, El-Sayad said.

In its monitoring report on the media, the Independent Coalition for Monitoring Elections was critical of the Egyptian media for having "contributed to the situation of partisanship and division that the Egyptian street has suffered from during the run-offs and which is still casting its shadow over the current political situation."

"Press coverage has highlighted clashes between the supporters of the candidates, as well as polarising statements, reflecting to the public the idea that people should choose to join the ranks of a specific team and that doing so requires crude attacks on the opposing group," the report said.

"This focus has created a situation of animosity between voters and produced a climate of intolerance, the detrimental effects of which could be witnessed after the announcement of the election results."

Concerning the audiovisual media, the report was also equally critical of the state-owned channels for having been "keen to criticise the Muslim Brotherhood, without providing information in support of the rival candidate."

"The media should also be held responsible for consolidating the idea of confrontation between the religious and civil state and the necessity of choosing between them," the report added.

THE CART BEFORE THE HORSE: Nevertheless, it seems that the revolution has failed to improve people's lives, and for many talk about democracy perhaps seems irrelevant until their mostly economic needs are satisfied.

Yet, "the problem is with the politicians, not the people," El-Sayad insists. For more than 17 months since the ouster of Mubarak, the political elite has been bogged down in debates about the Islamic-versus-civil identity of the state that do not address the problems the vast majority of Egyptians have in securing food, shelter and better standards of education and health.

Many experts insist that the thorny and philosophical debates on the character of the state and the relation of religion to the state that have been going on may seem to be irrelevant for many at a time when their urgent economic needs have not been satisfied.

After all, there is almost a consensus among experts that no system of law, whether Islamic or liberal, can function if it is effectively undermined by a poor economy and a bureaucracy demoralised by low pay.

This miscalculation on the part of the political elite has resulted in a situation that is eclectic, at best. A state of deep polarisation has come about among the different protesters as a result and between the old and new parties, the secularists and the Islamists, and the old and new regimes. There is a conflict between those who want to revenge the past and those who are seeking to build the future.

Even more disturbing has been the tendency among these conflicting forces to accuse their opponents of either supporting a counter-revolution spearheaded by remnants of the old regime or of serving personal or Western interests and getting funds from Western countries.

Such considerations when linked with the laxity of the SCAF and the beneficiaries of the old regime hanging onto their interests have made the revolution go off track.

DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT IN FIGURES: Yet, if the figures are anything to go by, public support for democracy has not ebbed despite the hardships and chaos. A recent survey by the Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project conducted on the eve of the recent presidential elections found that while the economy is clearly a top priority for Egyptians, so is democracy.

"Two-in-three Egyptians (67 per cent) believe democracy is the best form of government, basically unchanged from 71 per cent in 2011," according to the Pew research. "In fact, when asked which is more important, a strong economy or a good democracy, the public is divided: 49 per cent say the former and 48 per cent the latter."

Moreover, the survey found that Egyptians do not just voice their support for democracy in a general sense; they also want specific democratic rights and institutions. In particular, they want a fair judiciary, with 81 per cent considering it very important to live in a country with a judicial system that treats everyone the same way.

About six-in-ten say it is very important to live in a country with a free press (62 per cent); free speech (60 per cent); and honest, competitive elections with at least two political parties (58 per cent). In addition to these fundamental components of democracy, Egyptians also want order, with 60 per cent rating law and order as very important.

However, whether the country is taking the right steps towards attaining these essential democratic goals remains an open question.

"If we go by the book, then Egypt would be on the right track towards attaining democracy," said Moataz-Bellah Abdel-Fattah, a political science professor at Central Michigan University in the US and a member of the constituent assembly tasked to write the new constitution

For the first time in decades, Egyptians have been allowed freely to elect their president. Many of the voters who flocked to the ballot boxes were hopeful that electing a civilian president would usher in a new era in which Egyptians would start to feel the benefits of democracy.

However, the enthusiasm soon ebbed amid fears that the new president's authority would be curtailed since there was not even a constitution laying out what powers the new president would have.

It is of course early days in the new democratic world of Egypt's first elected Islamist president, Mohamed Mursi. Not only does he have many tough issues on his agenda, but the transition from military dictatorship to a more democratic system is anything but plain sailing.

In particular, a series of events took place prior to the presidential elections that plunged Egypt's already-troubled transition to democracy into a deeper state of confusion, and it is still unknown how much power the military will retain in the future.

The SCAF dissolved Egypt's first democratically-elected parliament by virtue of a hurried court ruling on the eve of the presidential elections, allowing it to regain legislative power, and it stripped the presidency of many of its powers by issuing an addendum to its earlier Constitutional Declaration (made in March 2011) that would limit presidential prerogatives to the advantage of the military.

The addendum also gave the SCAF the opportunity to play a key role in the elaboration of the future constitution, provoking the ire of revolutionary forces and the Muslim Brotherhood.

This "swift series of steps by the military and its allies in the judiciary," commented the New York Times, "left many observers in Egypt and the West wondering if they were witnessing a subtle military coup, or even a counter-revolution."

A recent article in the same newspaper suggested that a campaign by the state-run media, "the traditionally admiring chronicler of Egypt's head of state, to undercut the newly elected president" was already in process and could perhaps be a clear indication of "who still holds the real power over the Egyptian bureaucracy."

According to the Times, when Mursi summoned the parliament after his election, the decision caused a stand-off with the military and provoked the ire of secularists and judges. Egypt's state-run media, the Times said, then "quickly allied with the generals" through coverage that was biased in favour of the military against the president.

"The state media campaign against Mr Morsi is part of a bewildering power struggle in the streets, the courts and back rooms that has all but paralysed Egypt's government," the paper concluded.

STRUGGLE FOR POWER: Political analyst Issandr El-Amrani further explained the mechanism behind this struggle for power that has made Mursi's honeymoon in office extremely short-lived.

"Within days of his inauguration, his office was besieged with protesters," El-Amrani wrote in the International Herald Tribune. "Reeling at the sight of a Muslim Brother sitting in Hosni Mubarak's old chair, the many Egyptians who did not vote for him are rejoicing at the military's bid to curtail his powers."

No wonder, then, that Mursi's decision to summon the dissolved parliament back into session was met with "apoplectic outrage from secularists, judges and others who were eager to seize the occasion to bash the incoming president."

In the meantime, according to El-Amrani, Egypt's judiciary has been allying itself with the military against the Brotherhood president. "Some judges are opposing the president because they hate the Muslim Brotherhood; others because they were a core part of the Mubarak-era establishment and are resisting change," El-Amrani wrote. "Many [judges] see themselves as the guardians of the civilian state."

Talking in a similar vein, Naim provides a pessimistic outlook on the situation in Egypt. "We are not in the first year of democracy," he said. "We are still living under the same autocracy we have been suffering under for years, which puts authority in the hands of a minority."

By this Naim means old-regime beneficiaries, who he said include "the military council and business tycoons, including Brotherhood leaders."

Despite the historic nature of seeing a freely elected president for the first time in Egypt's history, many liberal and secular forces feel similarly short-changed, and they are particularly fearful of the possibility that Egypt may end up in the grip of Islamist rule.

On a more optimistic note, both El-Sayad and political analyst Gamil Mattar insist that democracy is a process that takes years to bring about and no one should expect changes to happen in the immediate future.

"It will take years, perhaps a decade, until real change occurs," Mattar said, adding that thus far all should be able to feel the historic magnitude of Egypt's being transformed from a military to a civil regime and holding free elections for the first time in decades.

"The very fact that people are now more politicised, that young people are engaged in the political process, and that we now have unprecedented knowledge about Egyptian society, from the motives and agendas of the elite to the wishes and demands of those living in the slum areas, are all major steps on the way towards attaining democracy," he commented.

No matter how difficult Egypt's transition to democracy may be, there is almost a consensus that true democracy remains the only remedy for the country's problems. For that democratic process to make headway, however, many would agree with El-Sayad that it is high time for all the political forces, especially the Brotherhood and the leftists, to abandon their historic animosity and to work together.

"The very notion of an Islamic-versus-civil state that is being extensively used in the media is not even a viable argument; it would make more sense if we said an Islamic-versus-non-Islamic or Christian state or a civil-versus-military government," El-Sayad continued.

Equally worrisome for El-Sayad has been the use of such terminology as "the hegemony of a certain political party or group."

"It is normal in all democratic countries for the political party of the president to constitute a majority in the formation of the government," El-Sayad said. "Even in the United States, the president's administration is usually formed of members of the political party he belongs to."

Mursi, for his part, seems to recognise that many of the votes he garnered in the presidential elections were cast through fear of the victory of the former regime's last prime minister rather than out of enthusiasm for his candidacy.

The newly elected president has thus been quick to try to build bridges with all the forces on the political scene in an attempt to appear as a consensual and democratic leader. He has repeated pledges to preserve the status of women in society, and he has made several announcements that his vice-presidents would be a woman and a Coptic Christian.

In so doing, Mursi has reached out to two groups that have been particularly fearful of a Brotherhood victory. In his first remarks as president-elect, he promised to be a "president for all."

That said, many are still wary of how far Islamist hardliners, who are pushing for a more fundamentalist approach, will tolerate or allow Mursi's open-minded style of democracy to continue.

In a country where public debate is rich with rumour and conspiracy theories, the future remains foggy.

Abdel-Fattah laments this state of chaos, where "opinions are turned into facts, where people are increasingly phobic of the unknown and are bogged down in a wave of conspiracy theories about whatever is unclear or not understandable."

Abdel-Fattah speculates that the writing of the new constitution will probably clear much of the fog, but that the kind of democracy Egypt is likely to have will still be "culturally-embedded."

This means that "Egypt's democracy will be largely undermined by an unhealthy environment characterised by a deep state of polarisation, conspiracy theories, mutual accusations of betrayal and a lot of surprises," he said.

photo: Reuters

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Something wrong with the wires

Revolution gives way to security breakdown. The people vote for the Sheikh. The Israeli Embassy is ringed with protesters, but so -- eventually -- is its Saudi counterpart. False prophets take over Tahrir Square. Thousands die; millions grow beards. Previously unseen gods of the sect bless the public sphere with fatal ministrations. The traffic is worse and worse. Petrol shortages give way to mortal combat, but not before a president is elected do arbitrary power cuts set in, apparently for the good of Islam. It turns out the General has been in league with the Brother all along. The Dissident preaches self-hatred. Then, electricity allowing, the people gather before the television to see how 18 months of turmoil may have affected the content and style of the sine qua non of their yearly month of devotion: the serial drama. Somehow, in spite of the economic slump, social uncertainty and political depravity, the makers of programmes have been busier than ever. "Revolutionaries" are still in jail, incarcerated murderers of the "Islamic" stripe are being set free by presidential decree -- but it is all about thugs and Israel.

Nor does it have anything to do with the Arab Spring as such. One thing on which Islamists and seculars may agree is that Egypt's yearly festival of gluttony and comatose staring at screens would arguably look more like the holy month it was intended to be were it not for that unholiest of square monsters: the surface on which the ghosts of a given society tell that society what it is about. But it is interesting to observe how so-called drama has developed in the wake of so-called democracy. There is more swearing, more acknowledgement of unsavoury phenomena -- the drug taking, the bribe receiving, the ballot rigging, the torture using -- but none of these things is sufficiently thought through to feel remotely real. Shantytown thugs come across as downtown intellectuals, high-profile female lawyers as expensive prostitutes, activists as actors playing unemployed young men who are themselves playing at being activists. Upper Egyptians have still not mastered their own dialect; and, contrary to any evidence, sectarian tensions are still the rare exception to the rule of "national unity" between Muslims and Christians. Remarking on his failure to extract a confession using electricity, one State Security officer who looks and sounds like an employee of the Ministry of Endowments says, "I thought there might be something wrong with the wires."

In one of at least two big-budget productions on the ever present fascination with "the Zionist entity" -- the copy of a copy of a copy of something that may once have been entertaining or funny -- comedy superstar Adel Imam transports the concept of Ocean's Eleven into the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict ("our brothers in Gaza" notwithstanding): he is an Egyptian diplomat who gathers and commands a band of high-wire artists in various disciplines to rob a bank in Israel. Forget plausibility and deeper implications (how on earth would such a feat benefit the Palestinian cause, for Nasser's sake?): the stink raised among "the Enemy" by Imam's absolute ignorance of Israeli society and the callousness with which he is treating Judaism is threatening to develop into a diplomatic crisis in its own right. So, having been mistaken for a hero of secularism earlier in the year, while the president denies writing to Peres and Peres shows the world the president's letter to him, counter-revolutionary Imam may yet be mistaken for a hero of nationalism. (see pp.16-17)

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Battle for Aleppo

A fierce battle is raging between the Syrian regime and opposition for control of the country's second-largest city, writes Bassel Oudat in Damascus Women mourning at the graves of their sons, whom activists say were killed by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad, in Homs; and anti-government protest in Aleppo

Fighting spread this week from the Syrian capital Damascus to the country's commercial capital Aleppo in the north on the border with Turkey, with armed opposition fighters making tangible gains against regime forces by using more advanced and powerful weapons.

Some of these included anti-aircraft weapons mounted on four-wheel drive jeeps, and such weapons have enabled opposition fighters to take control of over half the city's districts, home to some 2.5 million people.

Forces loyal to the regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad have been unable to recover control, despite putting the city under siege for over ten days with 250 tanks and tens of thousands of soldiers.

In a repeat performance of tactics used elsewhere in the country, regime forces in Aleppo have used heavy artillery to bombard neighbourhoods under control of the armed opposition, but the latter insists that it will not retreat from its positions.

Revolutionary fighters have been making announcements to the effect that they are in control of areas in and around the city, and broadcast video footage has shown fighters in front of eight tanks allegedly captured in battles with the regular Syrian army.

Several western capitals have issued warnings that regime forces could commit massacres in Aleppo, and although it is unlikely that the West will go to war over Syria, it is possible that massacres in Aleppo could serve as a pretext for intervention.

US defence secretary Leon Panetta said that the Syrian regime was "digging its own grave" by attacking Aleppo and using "blind violence" against its citizens. The regime had "lost all legitimacy and the more violence it commits the closer it is to its demise," Panetta said.

The US administration also told the Syrian opposition that if al-Assad were forced to step down, it should not dismantle the regime's security and other agencies in order to avoid a scenario like that which took place in Iraq, indicating that Al-Assad's fall may be imminent.

French president François Hollande said that France would call on the UN Security Council to intervene to prevent new massacres in Aleppo, reiterating that the only solution that could reunite Syrians was for Al-Assad to leave power and the formation of a transitional government.

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil El-Arabi described the situation in Syria as "amounting to war crimes," adding that the Syrian regime "will not be able to continue in power much longer."

"Its days are numbered," El-Arabi said. "There is no talk now of political reform. Now talk is of the transfer of power."

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the international community "is now planning for the post-Al-Assad phase," adding that "no country in the world, influential or not, believes Al-Assad's regime will continue in power."

Robert Maude, former head of the UN monitors in Syria, also talked to the press for the first time since leaving Syria, commenting on the situation in Aleppo by saying that "the overthrow of the Syrian regime is only a matter of time, and it is using heavy military against civilians."

"Every time 15 people are killed in a village, 500 others become sympathisers, and around 100 of them become fighters. It is very possible that Al-Assad will hold out in the short term because the military capabilities of the Syrian military are superior to those of the opposition."

However, the Syrian government and its Iranian ally have rejected all talk of the regime's collapse. Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim said during a visit to Tehran that his country "will defeat the universal plot against it," adding that "the armed fighters will fail just as they did in the great battle of Damascus."

His Iranian counterpart Ali Akbar Salehi noted that any notion of a transfer of power in Syria "is an illusion." The Secretary of Iran's National Security Council Said Jalili said that Tehran "is prepared to support Damascus even more than before in countering foreign pressures."

However, the scene in Damascus contradicts such assertions, since while the regime continues to bombard city districts from all directions with heavy artillery, daily battles continue on the streets and around the capital.

The security agencies have divided the city into zones, but opposition fighters continue attacks against the security forces after sundown.

Although many inside and outside Syria have warned against the possibility of massacres carried out by regime forces in Aleppo, no action has been taken on the world stage, though France has decided to go to the UN Security Council once again over the issue despite fears that Russia may once again use its veto power to block punitive measures against the Syrian regime.

The Arab bloc has also submitted a draft resolution on Syria to the UN General Assembly, aiming to create safe zones in the country and to protect civilians and to step up political and economic sanctions if such moves are not made.

Turkey has started to take tangible steps on the ground by deploying rocket batteries and armoured vehicles along its border with Syria. Observers believe that this could be a preliminary step to securing Turkey's 185km-long southern border with Syria, or a preamble for assisting the revolutionary fighters if Turkey decides to intervene in Syria on behalf of NATO.

Aleppo is important not only because it is the second-largest city in Syria, but also because it is the country's strategic hub. Anyone achieving control of the city would have a critical strategic advantage.

If the opposition manages to retain control of Aleppo, this will allow it to declare surrounding cities such as Idlib and Hamah to be safe zones, extending this area from the border with Turkey to Damascus.

The regime knows that if it loses Aleppo to the revolutionaries, this will mean the start of the countdown to its demise.

"The president will never accept any solution that forces him to step down, unless there is foreign military pressure that could culminate in direct military intervention," Fawaz Tallu, an opposition figure connected to the revolutionaries, told Al-Ahram Weekly.

"On the other hand, the revolutionaries may make huge advances on the ground and overthrow the regime, which is a more likely scenario. I believe we are very close to the point of no return, defined by the size of the military crackdown and the number of deaths, bringing us to a point that makes a gradual and peaceful transition of power almost impossible."

The situation in Aleppo developed quickly after the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) took control of key locations and proposed the creation of an opposition Supreme Defence Council (SDC) that would include the leaders of military councils across the country and senior officers who have defected from the regular army.

The SDC's mission would be to establish a six-man presidential council to manage the country's military and civilian affairs during the transitional phase. The latter would be able to propose legislation and to overhaul the country's military and security agencies.

The SDC's second task would be to establish a Supreme National Council (SNC) to protect the revolution, and this would include all civilian and military bodies, as well as political forces, national figures, revolutionaries and the FSA.

Commenting on whether the armed opposition will be able to create and secure buffer zones without the use of advanced weapons, Tallu said that the "armed opposition has recently come into possession of a small number of advanced weapons, which has enabled it to offset the balance of power between the regime and the revolution."

"However, creating a secure buffer zone in the true sense requires more weaponry than is currently available, such as anti-aircraft missiles. That is why there are liberated areas that are not secured, and it will be impossible to prevent long-range rocket attacks without air cover."

The US and Europe are coordinating support for the opposition, but they are not supplying it with weapons. Observers say that Qatar and Saudi Arabia are assisting the opposition through weapons supplies and training.

Some scenarios project that the FSA will be able to take control of other regions of Syria within weeks and take down the regime through military operations, even though this would be the most destructive scenario for the state and its institutions.

Meanwhile, the western media has said that other plans are taking shape, some pertaining to preparations for military intervention outside the Security Council and others focussing on a possible peaceful transfer of power that would see Al-Assad handing power to a transitional government that would draft a new constitution, paving the way for parliamentary and presidential elections after which Al-Assad would step down.

Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think tank, issued a Syria Crisis Briefing this week stating that military intervention in Syria was "inevitable" and that Western states, including Turkey, were concerned about three main issues that could force them to resort to military force in Syria.

First, there was the fear of civil or sectarian war that could spill over into neighbouring states, the briefing said. Second, there was the danger of chaos in Syria, making it into a "failed state" that would be an ideal ground for Al-Qaeda and jihadist groups. Third, there was the danger that Syria's chemical weapons arsenal could fall into the hands of Al-Qaeda or Hizbullah.

The New York Times also claimed that the US had started to put together a plan to topple Al-Assad and that the US administration had abandoned diplomatic efforts in Syria, deciding instead to increase assistance to the revolutionaries and to boost efforts to build a consensus among other countries that Al-Assad's regime must go.

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently announced that after Russia and China had blocked punitive Security Council resolutions against Syria, Washington would take action outside the framework of the UN.

Commenting on the opposition's views of the crisis, Marwan Habash, a member of the opposition Regional Command and a former Syrian cabinet minister, told the Weekly that "neither the Syrians nor the Arabs alone can reach a solution to the crisis. It is up to the major countries and their political and strategic think tanks to propose solutions."

"I do not see a significant role for the political opposition inside or outside the country, except to deal with these proposals and to make some superficial changes."

Whatever the case may be, the next few weeks will be crucial ones in how the crisis unfolds, with all observers keeping a close eye on Aleppo, the fate of which could determine the path and future of the Syrian revolution.

It is unlikely that this battle will be settled in weeks, and it is certain to levy a heavy human and material toll. Whoever wins, winning will be only the first step. Should the opposition win, this will not mean that it is about to enter the presidential palace in Damascus, while a victory for the regime would not mean that it has crushed the revolution.

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The Fourth Serial

Hani Mustafa samples Ramadan TV

For several years now Ramadan has become the sole objective of television drama making: 30 days over which dozens of programmes compete for the highest rates of viewing; for no viewer however eager can watch more than four or five out of some 70 serials on Egyptian satellite channels alone.

Khutout Hamraa (Red Lines), directed by Ahmed Shawqi and written by Ahmed Mahmoud Abu-Zaid, is the movie star Ahmad El-Saqqa's second attempt in a year to polish the image of the policeman, following the complete collapse of that image -- not because of 18 months of (purposeful) security breakdown during which the presence of the police on the street was weak and intermittent at best but because of many years during which policemen practised violence and torture against citizens. Saqqa must've thought that the way to bring back security was to improve the image of the policeman as a human being and so garner sympathy and respect for him, encouraging him to resume his duties. The first attempt was Sandra Nashaat's film Al-Maslaha (Interest), which was released at the start of the summer and is still showing; it may indeed be that the plotline of that film is more or less identical to that of Khutot Hamraa: in an extremely naïve and mawkish cinematic idiom, it tells the story of a vendetta between a policeman (Saqqa) and a drug lord (Ahmad Ezz).

Likewise the serial: Hossam (Saqqa) the policeman is pitted against a big arms dealing family in Upper Egypt, one son of whose chief Mansour (Abdel-Aziz Makhyoun) Hossam has killed sending the other son, Diab (Monzir Rihana), to jail; Diab is sentenced to capital punishment for killing an officer, but Mansour manages to arrange for his escape. (Rihana, a Jordanian actor, had played an impressive role in Al-Maslaha as the middle-man between Lebanese and Egyptian drug dealers.) A string of revenge killings takes place, with Mansour killing Hossam's wife (Youssra El-Louzi). Hence Hossam's vendetta operation: in the course of a successfully intercepted the handover of a cargo of arms, he shoots Mansour dead. With fewer extras as soldiers and less equipment, the scene was significantly weaker than its counterpart in the film -- implausibly, once you take into account the riskier nature of arms compared to drug dealing.

Here as elsewhere television drama lifts its concepts from films or previous successes, revealing a terrible lack of creative force. Such is the case with Al-Zawja Al-Rabi'a (Fourth Wife) directed by Magdi El-Hawwari and written by Ahmad Abdel-Fattah. It is practically a replica of 'Ailat El-Hagg Metwalli (Hagg Metwalli's Family), directed by Mohammed El-Noqali and written by Mostafa Muharram, which proved controversial on its screening in Ramadan, 2001: for the first time on Egyptian television it dealt in a social comedy format with the ticklish issue of polygamy, with Nour El-Sherif as the lusty merchant Hagg Metwalli marrying four women who all live in the same house. Likewise Fawwaz (Mustafa Shaaban) in Al-Zawja Al-Rabi'a, the owner of a hijab-wear shop who is very similar Hagg Metwalli: what is remarkable is that Shaaban had played the eldest son of Hagg Metwalli's. Except for a few details pertaining to the life of the grassroots rich in Cairo and their more recent adoption of surface religiosity, the present serial has absolutely nothing to add to the previous one.

Directed by Adel Adib and written by Mohammed Soliman Abdel-Malek, Bab Al-Khalq, set in the period 1985-2010 and named after a Cairo neighbourhood, would seem to have a slightly new topic. In it the turban worn by the hero, Mahfouz Zalata (Mahmoud Abdel-Aziz) looks more like a Mameluk aristocrat's than an Egyptian jihadi who spent over 25 years fighting in Afghanistan. So much so that it recalls Mohammed El-Muwelhi's early 20th-century book Hadith Eissa Ibn Hisham (Issa Ibn Hisham's Discourse), in which a character from the past retells his own future. Mahfouz managed to escape his comrades in arms with his son, arriving in Egypt in a way that drew the attention of State Security. It seems the makers of the drama were inspired by the idea of the returnee: someone who, having spent a long time away from home, arrives in Egypt to register the deterioration that has beset society -- something that is particularly obvious in the main character's attitude, who behaves as if he has returned from the Western world and is eager to spread the message about secular values.

Yet this man has not come back from a better place: he has been living in the middle of war, bloodshed and extremism. Equally strange is that Mahfouz seems unaffected by his years in Afghanistan: at least he does not espouse the extremist Wahhabi doctrine, something that becomes clear in a scene in which he confronts a sectarian battle with sticks and knives in his own neighbourhood: an all too obvious rhetorical message, naïvely conveyed. It makes no attempt at all to reconcile Mahfouz's background with the message the makers of the serial want to get across to its viewers. Social and political critique take the form of Mahfouz being shocked with behavioural transformations that have taken place in his absence. Even political corruption is dealt with in the same way: Mahfouz's brother (Tamer Hagras), a crony of the ruling party (which, peculiarly, remains nameless), exemplifies the opportunist willing to cut family links in return for upward mobility.

But lifting ideas is not restricted older serials or films, themselves often lifted from Hollywood. Last year's serial Al-Bab fil-Bab (Door to door), directed by Ossama El-Abd and written by Tamer Abdel-Hamid, is lifted from the American sit-com Everybody Loves Raymond. This year offers part two of Al-Bab fil-Bab. What is interesting about this is that, instead of being an Egyptianisation adequately transporting the concept of Raymond into an Egyptian context, Al-Bab fil-Bab is a literal translation of the American sit-com. Likewise Hikayat Banat (Girls Stories), directed by Hussein Shawkat and written Baher Dwidar: it relies on the dramatic structure and some of the techniques of the phenomenally successful serial Sex and the City. Though not an exact copy of its American model, the problem with Hikayat Banat is that this type of drama is extremely difficult: while the American makers of Sex and the City manage the tightrope walking feat of conveying the relations and desires of four young women in the context of comic and suspenseful picture of New York society, their Egyptian counterparts have not managed it.

As for the serial in which comedy megastar Adel Imam stars, Firqat Nagui Atallah (The Nagui Atallah Team), it is directed by Imam's son Ramy Imam and costars his other son, Mohammed Imam. The serial is based on Ocean's Eleven, the main character being an administrative official in the Egyptian embassy in Israel who seems to deal with Israelis with pleasant ease. The first few episodes recalled the espionage serials written by the late Saleh Mursi and aired in the 1980s: the famous Dumou' fi 'Uyoun Waqiha (Tears in Insolent Eyes, 1980), for example, also starring Imam, whose acting style has remained unchanged since. Yet the viewer soon discovers that this is a serial of a different kind that benefits from actual political details of the Arab-Israeli conflict. When Nagui's work at the embassy is finished, he decides to form a highly skilled team of young Egyptians with each member outstanding in his field: the sportsman, the computer whiz, the explosives expert, the thief. They come together and train with the object of raiding a bank in Israel to steal nearly a billion dollars and transport the money to Egypt. Preparing for the task, Nagui and his team meet with various obstacles reflecting regional issues.

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